Communication specialist Jose Bayani Baylon is a keen observer of Philippine politics. He is sharing with VERA Files readers his reading of political movements, obvious and not-so-obvious, leading up to the election in May 2022.
“If I will be their chosen one, thank you in advance.”
This is what Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso is said to have exclaimed, in Filipino, when asked for comment after Sen. Bong Go announced his withdrawal from the presidential race over the weekend.
Moreno was making it clear to the Duterte world (or DDS) that if the withdrawal materializes he was ready, willing and able to step in and become the presidential candidate of the non-Bongbong Marcos faction of the DDS.
Clearly he is hoping to lure the DDS into voting for a Moreno-Duterte-Carpio ticket. Under different circumstances it would have been a formidable one. But things aren’t that simple already.
As for Doc Willy Ong who gave up what people said was a sure Senate seat, the good Mayor apparently wasn’t asked and so didn’t have anything to say about what appears to be a “laglagan” move.
That Isko – in third place in most opinion surveys – was a potential “Plan B” for groups close to President Duterte but wary of either Bongbong or Mayora Sara (or both!) has always been talked about. When many of the political operators close to former Speaker Alan Cayetano left plum posts in the PRRD administration to work for the Isko campaign, some started wondering whether this was a sign that Isko was somehow figuring in the calculations of Mayor Rody.
Note that the Cayetano operators with Mayor Isko were the same ones who strategized the anti-Bongbong campaign tack that Cayetano took on his way to a third place finish in 2016. (Hmmm – third place seems to be consistent with these folks!)
And of course, after an initial dalliance with VP Leni that grossed speculation of Leni not running and endorsing Isko instead, or of a Leni- Isko (or an Isko-Leni) tandem, the Manila Mayor went soft on his criticisms of the Covid-19 response of the administration- and soon was actually criticizing the VP.
So is Isko in fact Plan B?
I would hazard a positive response, but with a twist.
While on the surface an Isko- Sara may appear to be (and appeal as) the ideal Plan B of the non-Bongbong DDS and the forces in the Duterte world that are close to Sen. Bong Go and wary of Mayor Sara, what this would in fact do is simply siphon off votes from the Bongbong-Sara bloc but in numbers not sufficient to elect the Manila mayor as president anyway. So he places third in the presidential race where only one wins, but in the process he could even end up becoming the spoiler for the other portion of the DDS by handing over victory by plurality to VP Leni, who has now overtaken him in reputable surveys. Isko could end up like Imelda to Bongbong’s Danding; by splitting the post EDSA 1 loyalist vote they only helped ensure the victory of Fidel Ramos – who in this case would be Leni.
And that’s why Isko could indeed very well be the Plan B, but not so much PRRD’s as VP Leni’s! If I were part of the Leni campaign I’d help boost Isko as the Duterte candidate but just enough to move votes from the Marcos column to the Moreno column thereby paving the way to the VP’s win!
Isko is Plan B. But VP Leni’s!
The views in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of VERA Files.