The May 9 election for President of the Philippines is going to be a historic one, one way or the other.
If Ferdinand Marcos Jr is to win, it will be historic in the sense that for a long time now we have not seen a candidate for president consistently top public opinion surveys from the start of the campaign period all the way toElection Day. Save for Joseph Estrada in 1998, every President elected after the EDSA Revolution was a come-from-behind winner of sorts, one who was not the front runner and clear favorite when the starting gun was fired.
More importantly, Marcos may become the first president to be elected by more than 50% of the voting population, a very important matter to note. In a country whose deep divisions are made even more so by a political campaign, having a mandate of over 50% provides a president a rare opportunity to govern with considerable public support.
He will need that if he is to succeed Rodrigo Duterte and come face to face with enormous economic and social challenges on top of the need to heal the wounds of the divisive campaign.
On the other hand, should vice president Leni Robredo win the elections to be held in a little over a month, it will be a historic victory of mega proportions.
Hers will be a political upset of a kind never seen in our history, one that would surpass even the Duterte victory in 2016.
It would also surpass the Donald Trumptriumph over Hillary Clinton for the presidency of the United States in November of the same year, for that matter.
A Robredo victory, however, would be another minority presidency. This would be an additional challenge to any successor of Duterte, given the economic, social and political challenges the country faces in a world that is itself struggling under the weight of a virus and a global economic downturn.
Then again, if anyone other than Marcos or Robredo win – that would even be a bigger historic triumph.
So which one would it be?
Based on images of rallies alone, one would be somewhat justified to feel that momentum is going the way of the Vice President. Her rallies are well attended by passionate supporters who are also adept at using social media in generating imagery that is crucial in political propaganda. Social media is also full of tales of Robredo volunteers doing house to house campaigns, distributing materials paid for out of their own pockets.
But one has to realize that elections are won by hard numbers. A rally of 130,00 may look impressive but when that number is arrayed against the NCR population of 13 million it begins to looks puny. Similarly, a rally in Echague town of Isabela by some 10,000 people sounds impressive as well, but pales in comparison to the 1.1 million voters in the province.
Based on surveys alone, on the other hand, one would not be faulted for feeling that the presidential race is almost over, not only because Marcos is consistently on top but also because his numbers are almost always above 50% which is enough to win a two-man race, much more a five-man race. We may not be seeing images of passionate Marcos rallies, or hearing of Marcos volunteers dipping into their own pockets to produce posters, pamphlets and other give-aways, but at the same time we may also not be seeing the work of a political organization that is critical in canvassing voters and getting them out on election day, which is ultimately what decides the fate of a campaign .
Bottomline: If I were a Las Vegas oddsmakers taking bets for May 9, I will have to concede that Marcos would be the odds-on favorite at this point to win the historic election.
But – and this is an important caveat -there are forty five days to go, and yes, miracles do happen even in politics.
Marcos? Robredo? Maybe even Ping, Isko or Pacquiao? Whoever emerges victorious I hope every Filipino qualified to vote will go out and vote and be part of that historic moment.
The views in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of VERA Files.